Loading Poll...The USA in 2050
Dr. Michael P. Riccards is Executive Director of the Hall Institute of Public Policy – New Jersey. Riccards is a former college president and a presidential scholar who has authored 15 books.
It has become commonplace for left wing naysayers and conservative commentators who are perpetually unhappy to conclude that America is meant for decline—the unofficial end of the empire is in sight. By 2050, the percentage of the population over 65 will be 20%, up from the 13% now. We will be an old shell of a people. Some of these forecasters have anointed China and India as the new leaders of the coming future. Yet the projections of the demographer Joel Kotkin show a very different America emerging
First, the USA has a relatively high fertility rate, especially in comparison to other major nations of the world. Between 2000 and 2050, the US 15-64 age cohort is likely to gain 42 percent. China is expected to decline 10 percent; 25 percent in Europe; 3 percent in South Korea; and 40 percent in Japan.
The major course of this upswing is of course immigration. The USA is the most desirable destination site in the world. In 2050, whites (Caucasians) will be a minority. We will indeed be a truly heterogeneous democratic society. Today 25% of the children under 5 are Hispanic; by 2050 that percentage will be about 40 percent. Chinese population projections show growth for a while, but it may be expected to experience a decline as early as 2035. Thus the impetus behind their government's current re-examination of its one child policy.
That new America will continue to live in the suburbs, and that means no mass exodus back to the cities as has been predicted for so long. Minorities too are tending to move toward the suburban towns. The demographics show that there will be some repopulating of the Midwest, rural and small towns in America.
The proportion of Africa American households being at or below the poverty level has dropped from 55 to 25 percent. And roughly 50% of African Americas live in suburbs than in 1980.
There will be an increase in small businesses and in individual business efforts. This even more diverse society has great potential for growth, development and fulfilling the numerous American dreams its peoples have. We need to encourage those possibilities in the midst of our wearying recession.